The GOPers may not have the votes to confirm a replacement for the late, great Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Sens Murkowski and Grassley are on clear record as saying they will not vote for a new justice this year. Sen Collins has clearly stated that she will not do so before the election. If those three stay true to their word, the Rs are at 50, one short of a clean vote for cloture to break a Democratic filibuster before Election Day and 51 after Election Day through the end of the session, and Sen Grassley is on the Judiciary Committee, so they may not even be able to get through the Judiciary Committee process by then anyway. Those totals would be 49 and 50, respectively, if Sen Romney joins with his own commitment. If Mark Kelly defeats Sen McSally in AZ, as he is favored to, he would be seated on November 30, 2020, making the totals 48 and 49, from December 1 to the start of the new session, depending on Sen Collins’ always wavering resolve. I know that leaves a lot of “ifs” but, in the best case (we win the Senate and the presidency), that leaves the GOP with a maximum window of only 27 days – from November 3 and 30, including Thanksgiving, when an executive tiebreaker can theoretically be used to break a cloture filibuster. And that assumes Sen Collins’ statement is interpreted to say she may vote for a scotus nominee anytime after Election Day, and that we couldn’t get even one more GOPer to commit. So, counting Romney on our side (I really hope I’m not wrong to assume he’s persuadable on this point), this is how this could break down:
– Through 11/3, 45 days from now: max 49 GOP votes available
– 11/3-11/30, 27 days: max 50 GOP votes available, unless Collins extends her commitment
– 12/1-1/3 if Kelly wins, 34 days: Max 49 GOP votes available or 48 depending on Collins
– total: 106 days
Obviously, if we lose the election, any delay past 106 days is pointless.
Based on this, I think we should do the following:
– call our senators, R or D, and get them to commit to filibuster a GOP nominee; note that the filibuster is required because otherwise the GOP still holds the majority of quorum needed for a cloture vote (as low as 47) short of a filibuster (50+1)
– use this to drive turnout to capture the Senate in our campaign and GoTV efforts
– for voters in AK, ME, and IA, call on Sens Grassley, Murkowski and Collins to reaffirm their prior commitments
– for voters in ME, call on Sen Collins to extend her commitment past Election Day, bearing in mind, God willing, that she may be a lame duck sometime in that interval
– for voters in UT, call on Sen Romney to join Sens Grassley and Murkowski in committing to no vote this session
– call for additional GOP defections
– donate, support, phone bank and canvass especially to Mark Kelly in AZ
– call on VP Biden and D Senate leadership to commit to pack the court as a credible threat if and only if the GOP insists on a cloture vote
Arguments to senators should include the following:
– precedent: a vote on a scotus nominee should not happen this close to end of session
– fairness: Merrick Garland
– prior commitments: Sens Collins, Grassley and Murkowski
– legitimacy: a confirmation this year would delegitimize Scotus and the new GOP justice, further destabilizing the country
– turnout: any GOP push to pass a nominee out of Judiciary between now and 11/3 would galvanize Democratic turnout and further endanger GOP members
– threat (only with VP Biden and Sen Schumer’s commitment on this point): we will answer unfairness with unfairness and push to pack the court if they push to confirm this session
I think I have this right, but let me know please if my analysis is wrong in any way. This is going to be a tough fight, regardless, and, no I don’t think we can trust any of those four GOPers to follow through. But we don’t have any other choice at this point.
NB: Sen Graham of SC is intentionally omitted, because he is a liar.
Day 896 American Child Hostage Crisis
Here is how you can help stop the Republican-led Senate from confirming the next Supreme Court Justice.
Call these 4 Republicans Senators. Grassley and Murkowski very recently said they would not vote to confirm. Collins and Romney supposedly more moderate than most Republicans.
Chuck Grassley – (202) 224-3744
Lisa Murkowski – (202) 224-6665
Susan Collins – (207) 780-3575
Mitt Romney – (202) 224-5251
Here are other Republicans who have been on record said they wouldn’t vote to confirm as well. Obviously, some of the names on this list are known as flip floppers, and some of these that said what they said in 2016 to justify their stance on NOT holding the voting for Justice Merrick Garland. We can call or use social media to put pressure on them.
Cory Gardner (R-Col.) – (202) 224-5941
John Cornyn (R-Texas) – 202 224-2934
Ted Cruz (R-Texas) – (202) 224-5922
Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) – (202) 224-5972
Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) – (202) 224-3041
Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) – (202) 224-4721
Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) – (202) 224-3254
Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) – (202) 224-6342
David Perdue (R-Ga.) – (202) 224-3521
Tim Scott (R-S.C.) – (202) 224-6121
Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) – (202) 224-5323
Pat Toomey (R-Penn.) – (202) 224-4254
Richard Burr (R-N.C.) – (202) 224-3154
Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) – (202) 224-5721
John Hoeven (R-N.D.) – (202) 224-2551
Rob Portman (R-Ohio) – (202) 224-3353
Feel free to copy and paste this on your wall, flood the other social media sites so more people can call and put the pressure on these Senators to stay true to their words.
And donate to democrats — especially senate candidates –in order to swing the senate BLUE.