The Electric-Vehicle Transition Is Quietly Surging Ahead

Author: Ryan Cooper


One of the biggest climate challenges for any country will be decarbonizing transportation. According to the EPA, about [29 percent]( of greenhouse gas emissions come from transportation after accounting for electricity use, just behind industrial production at 30 percent.

Fortunately, the electric-vehicle transition is happening faster than many expected, despite concerns earlier in the year that automakers were [pushing back their EV rollouts]( Clearly, that is not a response to consumer demand. A [new report]( on the state of the American car market, again from the EPA, has the goods. The EV share of new car purchases increased from 1.8 percent in 2020, to 3.2 percent in 2021, to 5.2 percent in 2022, to an estimated *9.8 percent* in 2023. Plug-in hybrid vehicles, meanwhile, increased from 0.5 percent to 2 percent.

In other words, the EV share of new cars increased more than fivefold in three years, while the share of plug-in hybrids quadrupled. At that pace of acceleration, EVs will make up half of new car sales by 2026 or so. These two developments reduced the emissions of the vehicle fleet by roughly 6 percent in 2022, and perhaps *11 percent* in 2023.

The Inflation Reduction Act provides ten years of secure subsidies for EVs, and every auto manufacturer around the world has made huge investments—even if some have been delayed somewhat—around the assumption that EVs are where the industry is going over the medium term.

Abe Mazliach

I am passionate about Justice and Freedom for all people.


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